The phrase “When America sneezes, the world catches a cold” vividly captures the global influence of the United States. As one of the world’s largest economies and a dominant cultural, political, and technological force, shifts in America’s policies, economy, or even social trends often ripple outward, impacting countries far beyond its borders.
From financial markets that react to changes in U.S. economic indicators to political movements that draw inspiration from American ideals, America’s actions frequently set off chain reactions that shape the global landscape. Due to this, the world is tuning into the U.S. presidential election. Though far from American soil, these regions are deeply connected to U.S. policy, especially in terms of trade, security, aid, and governance support. The election results over the past years have reshaped international relations, reconfigured trade dynamics, and shifted the balance of power within global institutions.
Today, on November 5, 2024, all eyes are once again on America. The Global South is bracing for the potential impacts of the U.S. election, aware that its outcome will inevitably shape their futures for better or worse.
Historically, U.S. foreign policy has profoundly impacted developing nations, at times destabilizing entire economies and governments through economic sanctions and military interventions. In countries like Cuba and Zimbabwe, prolonged sanctions have crippled local economies, resulting in poverty, limited access to global markets, and stunted growth. Meanwhile, American military interventions in Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria, carried out under the promise of democracy and freedom, have often left behind enduring instability, weakened infrastructures, and humanitarian crises. While some U.S. interventions fostered development and growth, others have left a legacy of division, economic collapse, and mistrust.
Although each new U.S. administration, whether Republican or Democrat, brings its own distinct foreign policy approach, these policies often uphold a core commitment to protecting U.S. interests. For the Global South, which frequently relies on multilateral institutions like NATO, the United Nations and the World Bank for developmental aid, trade, and security, the nature of U.S. engagement remains particularly crucial. Under one administration, foreign aid and cooperation may flourish, while another might lean toward a more self-centred, isolationist approach, leaving vulnerable regions with fewer resources.
African nations, who have been called shitholes by former president Trump, have a unique stake in U.S. elections due to the continent’s reliance on foreign aid, security partnerships, and investment opportunities. In a recent poll conducted by Larry Madowo, a CNN International Correspondent, many respondents from African countries expressed support for former President Trump, citing the point that he speaks his mind and his conservative values. Both major U.S. political parties usually express interest in African affairs. For example, Trump’s Republican-led administration focused on fighting China’s growing influence in Africa and growing private sector investments. On the other hand, The Democratic Party’s policies have prioritised development aid and human rights in Africa. However, Biden’s administration has faced criticism for a perceived disconnect between stated intentions and tangible actions, as seen by his limited direct engagement with the continent during his term. President Biden has yet to visit the continent, only promising to visit Angola in the last weeks of his Presidency, and with Vice President Kamala Harris representing the administration by visiting Ghana, Zambia and Tanzania to strengthen ties.
When it comes to relations with China and Russia, the world is seeing how these two giants are currently dominating the world economic stage. As the U.S.-China/Russia rivalry intensifies, countries in the Global South face pressure to align with the SuperPower that offers the most promise for economic growth at the cost of maintaining authoritarian regimes in power, making the navigation of this geopolitical divide increasingly difficult. The U.S. election outcome could either ease or heighten these tensions, pushing developing nations to either choose sides or strike a careful balance between competing powers. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), for instance, offers substantial infrastructural investment, which appeals to many developing countries seeking modernization. However, the BRI has also drawn criticism for creating debt dependencies, with some viewing this as a form of economic neo-colonialism. The results of the U.S. election will significantly impact whether countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America choose to align more closely with the U.S. or China, particularly in light of the emerging influence of BRICS.
The U.S. has long been seen as a beacon of democracy, yet recent events have shaken this image, weakening its influence over global governments. The January 6th, 2021 insurrection, where a sitting president actively refused to transfer power and citizens protested election results violently, highlighted some of the deep divisions that have been brewing in America. This post-election violence, coupled with persistent racial and social inequalities—much of which were spotlighted after the killing of George Floyd—eroded America’s moral high ground and credibility in promoting democratic values abroad. Many in the Global South, who have faced international criticism for similar post-election unrest, were quick to point out the hypocrisy. This event served as a reminder that democratic challenges and civil instability are not limited to developing nations, and this is now casting a more critical view of American influence in global governance and human rights advocacy. As a result, America is increasingly being viewed as less of a beacon of democratic excellence, and the world is closely observing to see how this situation unfolds.
With the rise of digital threats like foreign interference, misinformation, and cyber surveillance affecting U.S. elections, similar concerns are now emerging in the Global South. At Thraets, we are closely monitoring these digital threat trends and observing how the U.S. addresses them, recognizing that similar tactics may be used to target elections in the Global South. We aim to anticipate and prepare for potential risks to the electoral integrity in our own democracies.
As these issues surface, widely broadcasted on mainstream media and social media which is accessible to all, countries in the Global South are increasingly scrutinizing the ideals that America has long promoted. What exactly is the democracy that America champions? Could a contentious election further erode U.S. credibility? Will it fuel greater skepticism or lessen America’s influence on global efforts toward democratic reform?
Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, the world is watching…